Saturday, 2 May 2015

Demon Hunters: Why gambling for 1H crossbows is a super good idea.

DHs can gamble on 1H weapon at Kadala and choose items from only one pool which is one-handed crossbows.

Here is a sheet:

This heavily affects the odds.
  • Odds of gambling an ancient Kridershot is 1 out of 5000.
  • Odds of gambling an ancient Natalya's Slayer is 1 out of 630!!! (x8 better odds)

Since Natalya's build needs only 1 good weapon in the mainhand (offhand can be a stat-stick) I highly advise gambling for 1H crossbows to get one of the 3 ancient 1H crossbows that are useful for the Natalya's build: Balefire, Calamity, Natalya's. The odds for getting one are really good.

Ancient Danetta's 1 out of 630
Ancient Natalya's 1 out of 630
Ancient Balefire 1 out of 1250
Ancient Calamity 1 out of 2500 

To bring this in line.

CHANCE = 1-((630-1)/630)^1450 = 0.90008304554 

After 1450 tries which is 108,750 blood shards you have a 90% chance to gamble an ancient Natalya's Slayer.

And that number is insanely good. You need way more blood shards to gamble the ancient Natalya's chest for example.


Remember that you only need 1 ancient weapon for the mainhand and 1 stat stick. 3 of the 1H crossbows are super good for Natalya's build. Balefire, Calamity and Natalya's. The second weapon can be a stat stick (non-ancient is just fine).

Let's do some math and put together all our chances after say like 50,000 blood shards wich is 666 gamble tries.

Ancient Natalya's: 65.28%
Ancient Calamity: 23.39%
Ancient Balefire: 41.31%
Natalya's: 99.99%
Balefire: 99.52%
Calamity: 93.07%

After only 50k shards we have a 84.39% chance to have gambled at least one of the ancient weapons and a nearly 100% chance to have Natalya's and Balefire in the normal version.